Cruise Market Outlook: An Interview with Monty Mathisen, Managing Director of Cruise Industry News

The market for large cruise ships has bounced back strongly after COVID-19, and the luxury cruise segment continues to impress. Meanwhile, the expedition market is still in recovery mode. A strong focus on energy efficiency and vessel retrofits is emerging, as the major cruise operators are reluctant to sell older vessels and thereby risk enabling new competitors to enter the market.

After his presentation, we sat down with Monty to discuss key questions from the audience and his views on what lies ahead for the industry.

Positive Outlook for the Expedition Market

Although the expedition market remains below its pre-pandemic activity level, Mathisen is optimistic about its future:

“It’s coming — you have ships aging out that will need to be replaced, and companies doing well will reinvest and expand,”

Monty Mathisen, Managing Director of Cruise Industry News

He noted that the barriers to entry are relatively low for new players, as much of the operational side can be outsourced. “All you need is the brand, the customers, and the ability to sell tickets,” Mathisen explained.

While newbuilding activity has slowed, the segment is expected to grow steadily as operators replace older tonnage and new investors enter. A number of luxury hotel brands are also exploring smaller expedition-style vessels — a sign that the luxury and expedition segments are converging.

Challenges Due to the Geopolitical Situation

The ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict continues to affect the global cruise market, particularly in the expedition segment.

“It’s a bigger problem than people admit,” said Mathisen. “Half the Arctic is off-limits, the Black Sea is off-limits — it really limits where operators can sail and make money in the summer.”

The geopolitical instability has also redirected vessels toward other markets, such as Japan, where both luxury and expedition ships are currently being redeployed. According to Mathisen, “These ships were probably supposed to be somewhere else, but they ended up in Japan due to the geopolitical situation.”

Bigger retrofits are coming

In addition to new ships, a wave of large-scale refurbishment and energy-efficiency projects is taking place. Mathisen referred to recent examples such as Disney’s major hull redesign:

“If a retrofit costs $10 million but saves $30 million in fuel over eight years, why wouldn’t you do it?”

This focus on retrofits is fueled by both rising energy costs and stricter emissions requirements. “Once data starts flowing showing the benefits, every naval architect will be pitching similar projects,” he said. There is however no clear signs the taxation systems like EU-ETS so far has a big impact on the industry.

He also emphasized that the economics of ship operation have changed significantly since many vessels were designed. “Ships built 15 years ago were designed for 20 knots; today they’re optimized for 10–12. The hulls simply aren’t designed for that.”

Europe Still Expected to Be the Main Cruise Building Hub

Despite growing interest from Asian shipyards, Mathisen sees Europe retaining its dominance in cruise ship construction.

“Asian yards are bidding, but they lack the experience on the hotel side,” he explained. “They can build the hull, but still rely on European subcontractors — and Europe has the financing, the skills, and the contractors.”

Although China has built a few expedition ships and licensed copies of European designs, Mathisen doesn’t expect a major shift. “The big cruise projects — both

newbuilds and major refits — will continue to take place in Europe and North America, where the vessels are based and the expertise lies.”

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